An Australian startup developed a tariff calculator to help companies try and figure out what Trump’s brain farts will cost them

If you need a reality check on just how crazy Donald Trump’s tariff plan-du-jour was last week, well, after wiping trillions in value from global markets, he followed up with April 9’s insider trading scam before the US President tanked markets all over again and capped it off with some crony capitalism.

Economics analyst Joey Politano summed it up on Bluesky.

Joey Politano on Bluesky

But erratic as the US administration’s policy is at any given moment, Australian environmental, social and governance (ESG) software platform Fair Supply has created a supply chain tariff calculator to try and help companies understand the impact on their business. 

Fair Supply already maps over 60 billion global supply chains, and the model they’ve developed calculates cumulative tariff impacts across multiple tiers of international trade.

Human rights lawyer Kimberly Randle and University of Sydney mathematician and supply chain expert Associate Professor Dr Arne Geschke founded FairSupply in 2019. The platform give companies visibility over ESG risk in supply chains and investment portfolios, including issues such as modern slavery, Scope 3 carbon emissions, biodiversity and water use.

The startup raised a $6.3 million Series A in December 2022 led by AirTree, alongside Tidal Ventures, Dr Andrew Forrest’s Minderoo Foundation and the Queensland Investment Corporation.

Cofounder and chief technology officer Dr Arne Geschke believes that the cost to the Australian economy could be more than $15 billion, after Australia was slugged with 10% tariff rate – the same level as the penguins and seals on Heard and McDonald Islands – despite the fact that is has no tariffs on US imports.

Fair Supply’s estimate is that the biggest hits come from healthcare (A$1.6bn), construction ($1.2bn), and defence and security services ($960m).

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has so far ruled out retaliatory tariffs. On Friday, the Chinese commerce ministry announced another increase of its 84% tariffs on all US imports to 125%.

Dr Geschke said that when secondary and tertiary suppliers are hit with tariffs, the resulting cost increases ripples through international supply chains – inflating costs, distorting pricing, and eroding global competitiveness.

“Tariffs will be embedded in the DNA of global supply chains, and without visibility into those connections, companies are flying blind. While the focus has often been on tariffs applied at point-of-entry, the real damage is further downstream,” he said.

“These indirect costs are frequently invisible to traditional monitoring and are often passed onto Australian businesses with little control over their full supplier ecosystem. Our tool gives businesses the visibility they need to make strategic, informed decisions.”

The calculator also lets businesses compare the impact of tariffs across different countries to see where hidden tariff costs add up and consider alternative sourcing options. 

Most importantly, every policy tweak the White House and president make as Trump’s global trade war escalates is being fed into the calculator.

“This real-time recalibration ensures businesses always work with up-to-date insights that reflect current global trade dynamics, enabling users to respond proactively to shifting cost pressures and avoid cost blowouts or procurement disruption,” Dr Geschke said. 

The Fair Supply supply chain tariff calculator has a free version as well as a premium option. 

In the meantime, here’s how the Democratic People’s Republic of Heard Island, the Australian external territory 4000km southwest of Perth, population 0 if you’re not a seal or penguin, is tackling the trade crisis.

Our local manufacturing capacity is increasing. We’ve produced a similar but sturdier Cybertruck, named the Bergerblock (Left Photo.) We’ve also produced a facsimile of the humans we expect to purchase our Bergerblocks. Our artisan designer named it “Fragilis Masculinis” which is Latin, we think.

— Heard Island Government (@heardislandgov.bsky.social) 2025-04-12T02:34:54.822Z

☠️ PSA to Skua: Do not eat wayward human fisherman. They’re composed of various deadly toxins:Australian: 60% beer, 20% vegemite, 20% Tim Tams French: 50% cigarette , 20% bread, 30% Champagne English: 20% Builders tea, 70% chips, 10% NandosAmerican: 10% watery beer, 20% lard, 70% microplastics

— Heard Island Government (@heardislandgov.bsky.social) 2025-04-14T04:05:45.339Z